Why Putin’s Russia approved a ‘special operation’?

The underline reason said to be Russia’s fear that Ukraine or any other former Soviet Countries going to the stable of NATO. They think that it will destabilize the Russian Federation as NATO can deploy nuclear capable missiles on its borders and pose a threat to its integrity. Russia always criticized NATO’s eastward expansion plans.

Real background conflict of Ukraine – Russia

But the background of the same was set in Nov 2013 when ‘Euromaidan’ unfolded and which ended in Russia-Ukraine military conflict and annexation of Crimea to Russian Federation. This upraising was against then President Yanukovych’s decision not to sign a political association and free trade agreement with the European Union (EU) instead choosing closer ties to Russia even when the Ukrainian parliament had approved for the EU association. Following which the protests erupted against the government accusing corruption and abuse of power. This resulted in President Yanukvych’s ouster from power as the Parliament voted against him and he subsequently fled to Russia by accusing the voting as ‘illegal’. Protests for the revolution and against the revolution escalated between Eastern Ukraine and Southern Ukraine, following which Russia used its military and annexed Crimea and the creation of the self-proclaimed breakaway states of Donetsk and Luhansk and lead to Dombas war. Russia also accused Ukraine Government of oppressing the majority pro-Russian population of the Eastern Ukraine.

What is NATO and how it threatens Russia?

NATO is a political and military alliance from the year 1949. The alliance has 30 member countries, including the US, Canada, the UK, France, Belgium, and many other European nations. Ukraine is among 3 countries bidding for the NATO membership and the other 2 are Finland and Sweden. Principle of NATO is Collective defense, means that an attack against one Ally(NATO member country) is considered as an attack against all Allies(all member countries). Means the response will be an all out NATO attack against the attacking country.

Ukraine was the third highest Nuclear power post the collapse of Soviet Union?

Following the signing of the 1994 Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances among the US, UK, Russia, France, China, Ukraine agreed to destroy the rest of its nuclear weapons, and to join the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). By 1996, Ukraine transferred all Soviet-era strategic warheads to Russia. Russia would not have dared to invade if Ukraine had the nuclear weapons. So who is responsible for the mess? Of cause all the permanent member of the UNSC, especially the US and the EU.

Ukraine the world’s leading food producer and the largest exporter – will the war cause the food shortage and unrest around the world?

Ukraine is a major agricultural producer and exporter of the world. 60% of its agricultural exports goes to major 5 markets such as European Union, China, India, Turkey and Egypt. Ukraine has six primary products with over a billion dollars in export sales such as corn, sunflower seed, wheat, rapeseed, barley and sunflower meal. Combined these top six products accounted for more than 77% of Ukraine’s agricultural exports. Not to forget that Ukraine is the world’s largest sunflower seed/oil exporter in the world, accounts 47% worlds export market share. 85% of Ukraine’s sunflower seed/oil exports are to India, European Union, China and Iraq. Most of the Ukrainian farms are located in the eastern region where the Russian assault taking place. The war is definitely destroy the corps of this year and subsequently it will affect the export ability of the agricultural commodities to the 27 countries.

The impact of the war to the agriculture of Ukraine is mass elimination of the crops which are about to be harvested or to be planted in the month of March-April and reduced farm lands due to the bombings and movements of the military and the equipment. Well the impact of the food shortage around the world and the rising inflation can lead to unrest and wide protests and riots.

What would be the Post war infrastructure of Ukraine? Can they still produce food commodities?

Once the war is over important aspect is the condition of the surviving Ukrainian residential complexes, bridges, roads, rail infrastructure, ports and the farm fields. It will take years together to rebuild the country’s infrastructure and requires huge funding and help from other countries to live through. Not to forget about re-habitation of 30 million Ukrainians fled or displaced during the war. It is going to be a costly and a messy affair to deal with.

Russia Also a major agricultural food exporter

In the 2020/21, 20% of the world’s wheat exports was from Russia. Even bigger wheat exporter than Ukraine. Russia and Ukraine together accounted for nearly 30% of the globe’s wheat exports. The export of agricultural products from Russia in 2021 amounted to $ 25.2 billion USD. 29% of the world’s sunflower seed oil exports are from Russia.Interesting fact is that the leading importers of Russian agricultural products are European Union, China and Turkey. In short both Russia and Ukraine.

In response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, several Western countries have introduced a series of sanctions to cripple Russian economy. The United States, UK, France, Germany and other allies imposed strict sanctions on Russian banks, elites and exports, and major international companies have suspended their Russian operations. In retaliation, Russia announced a ban on exports of telecom, medical, auto, agricultural, electrical and tech equipment, forestry products, to 48 ‘unfriendly countries’ including the U.S. and the EU. Russia exported more than $7.1 billion in wheat to the world in 2021. Russia also announced a temporary ban on the export of wheat, rye, barley and corn to Eurasian Economic Union nations or ex-Soviet countries.

Ukraine-Russia war impact on global food supply?

We saw how dominant both Ukraine and Russia when it comes to export of food commodities such as wheat, corn and edible oil. They both combined together controls more than half of the world food and edible oil supply. So the impact of the short comings of the agricultural productions in both the countries due to the on going war is definitely increase the global food prices beyond the borders of Ukraine and Russia. Lets not forget that the world economy is already under down fall due to Covid19 impact and the subsequent inflation. As far an importing country of food commodity or energy, one side the food import is restricted and the other side due to shortage of oil supply may trigger steep food prices and increased inflation beyond anyone’s imagination.

Russia the major energy supplier of Europe and its allies

In 2021, Russia was the largest natural gas-exporting country in the world, the second-largest crude oil and condensates-exporting country after Saudi Arabia, and the third-largest coal-exporting country behind Indonesia and Australia. About 60% of Russia’s oil exports go to EU and another 20% to China. Not to forget that Russia is also a significant supplier of oil to Ukraine as well. In 2021, 84% of Russia’s exported natural gas arrived at its destination country by pipeline, and the rest was shipped as liquefied natural gas (LNG). Similar to crude oil and condensates exports, Europe was the largest importer of Russia’s natural gas, accounting for nearly 75% of Russia’s total natural gas exports. Germany, France, Turkey Belarus received most of that natural gas. Russian oil and gas made up more than a third of Russian revenues. One-third of Russia’s coal exports were to Europe, South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan together received about 22% of Russia’s coal exports. Russia supplies 40% of gas and 25% of its oil to Europe. This shows how significant is Russian energy supply to EU and its allies other than USA.

How Russian energy supply going to impact the EU and its allies

So far only the US announced a ban on Russian energy products where in its import of Russian energy is only 3%. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine invited USA and EU countries to impose sanction on Russia’s largest banks, its central bank, finance ministry, and moved to block SWIFT messaging system for international payments, which has made Russia’s trade payments for energy exports difficult and expensive. As per the above EU’s dependency to Russian energy is vital especially gas supply to survive the harsh European winter.

How will Russia play to evade the sanctions

It is for sure that Russia has the trump card when it comes to energy supply especially to Europe, it can play the game however it wants to. Can threaten to cut the pipeline supply of gas such as Nord Stream which runs from Russia to Europe under the Baltic Sea or with curbs on oil exports. It is to be noted that oil and gas is an essential international commodity which is not available in the vast geography so if EU cant buy other major buyers such as China, India, Brazil etc always in need of more oil and only payment part to be agreed upon since USD payment may not be possible due to sanctions.

Ukraine War Should Not Last Long Or Else Worldwar3?

The world other than Russia, Ukraine and the NATO allies wants an immediate cease fire of the Ukraine-Russia war. The UN(United Nations) should step in and play the active role to broker peace between the warring parties rather than play the role of a ‘mere spectator’. Reports says USA, Germany, France, Italy, Maldova, Poland etc are supplying arms and ammunition to Ukraine either directly or secretly to defend the Russian assault on Ukraine. This move is very dangerous as it create world war3 scenario where in Russia and allies in one side and NATO led allies on the other side and fighting each other directly or indirectly. Further escalation of the situation may invite a direct confrontation between the allies and a major war(world war3) can break out in Europe, of which the devastation can be in each and every country. So UN should intervene and stop US and EU and its allies from supplying weapons to Ukraine to counter the Russian troops as it will only ad fuel to the fire and the conflict goes on forever which may put the entire world population to a nuclear catastrophe in the form of a worldwar3. For the UN this is an ideal opportunity to address the long pending accusation that it only addresses the strategic interests and political motives of the certain powerful countries with vested interests.

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